A question posted by Prof. Stephen Hawking on Yahoo.com:
How can the human race survive the next
hundred years? In a world that is in chaos politically, socially and
environmentally, how can the human race sustain another 100 years?
The question above known Polish thinker Stanislaw Lec
put so: "Earth is a point under a question sign".To proceed his thought, let's think how
to take away this question, i.e. how to remain living, and moreover
-- living without the threat of self-annihilation?
Here is a plan how to do for it. It contains 3 goals to be reached that
have signs of imperatives how to survive. Paradoxically, if only they
are getting categorical ones, any chances of surviving will appear.
The evolution of our animal ancessors was proceeding at sufficient high
selection’s pressure. In result, our operative field of conscience is
narrow. In other words, we had provided in during of evolution by the
«narrow minds». Just because of such our peculiarity the human logic
is ‘black-white’, systemic thinking and synthetic ideas are rather rear
among people, who like simple decision and are losing very oftenly sight
This «narrow-mindedness», having been formely an advantage in surviving
(as allowing quicker behaviour reactions), now is a shortage. The cause
is that discrepancy is more and more between ‘the same’ individual mental
possibilities of people and the raising complexity of their existance’s
conditions. So, a limit to our existance is felt yet. To overcome the
shortage of panorame thinking (SPT) -- just so we can reformulate Blaise
Pascal’s ordinance: "Let's think correctly: here is the main principle
The goal as an imperative will get more understandable if we use a comparison.
Well, a deep-water fish, pulled out from kilometer depths (how it is
known, they cann't have been lifted from there alive), it is vision
of human community, pulling out itself to tops of the civilization.
Just as narrow specialized species of deep-water fishes, the humankind,
'provided' with SPT, has a narrow 'specialization' as well -- to act
after 'programs of jungles'. This comparison lets understand how big
threat for humankind is SPT. Here is why to overcome SPT is maybe the
main challenge of the Millenium.
To overcome SPT with educational means is in concordance with new reality,
the information abundance. Because of this circumstance, educational
priority "to study to know" is absolete, a new priority should
appear, "to study to be able to think". It is meant the thinking
creative, effective, panoramic, taking into account all necessary.
One of appearance of SPT is aggressiveness. The Austrian biologist Konrad
«We have weighty bases to consider inner-specific aggression
as the most serious danger threatening to Humankind... But the prospect
to fight this danger will not by no means better if we concider it as
something metaphysical and inevitable; if on the contrary we will try
to trace a chain of the natural causes of its origin, then, this may
Here, a hope is existing. Really, it is known that more educated people
are less aggressive. So, we can admit that the special directed education
methods, developing panoramic thinking (PT), will be able to less it
to normal, civilisation level and to make for pacification in the world.
If we take into account else that with SPT any fatal errors are inevitable,
and that the raising might of the civilisation makes their after-effects
more and more catastrophic, then reforming the national education systems
in direction of PT is getting not wished but imperatively compulsory.
Second goal-imperative. Problem of civilization’s security won’t be
vanished whole with common distribution of PT -- panoramic thinking;
the problem’s keenness will be only weaker. But in 2-3 generations a
systemic discordance will be increasing, because human civilization
obviously is in the contrary with tendencies of the living nature.
Really, there is a general system-forming tendency in the animal world
named by cephalization, going to head minds’ appearance on the final
phase. There is an analogy between an organism and its head brain, from
one hand, and a state and its governing body (i.e. a social organism
and its social brain) - from other hand. It means in any form is going
the process of social cephalisation on the level of states. But there
is no analogous process on the level of whole humankind.
Let us say this by other words. Individuals have oftenly goals of their
lives, states are guided by national ideas; but Humankind as a whole
does not folow any strategy of own development as having no analogue
of a social mind for elaborating it.
Complexity of the world, first of all the information one, will be enormously
great in 2-3 generations. To correspond it, human community should create
any form of planetary social mind. Owing computer nets such social mind
can provide the balance of complexities of systems -- governing (social
mind) and governed (the last part of people).
Third goal-imperative. The UN declared 2001 as Year of Dialogue of Civilizations.
I think the dialogue may be continued to the century’s end. But how
to propose such subject of discussion which would be of general interests?
Yes, challenge today are multi-faceted, and the response to them requires
"a vision based on dialogue". Let us mark: for the first time
in the human history such the dialogue, owing Internet and mobile communication,
may be organized as wold-wide. The main subject of it then might be
"How to Live With No Threat" or "To Better Life for All".
Last subject, as concerning all, as asking opinions of all (what and
how to do), and permiting everyone to express own opinion, is maybe
preferable to resolve problems of Global Peace and Security. By the
way, 'Golden Billion' and 'Not-Golden ones', they are from a model of
unstable world, having no positive perspective, and that would be one
of the problem to be discussed.
The problem of happiness appears to absorb all other problems facing
before Mankind: military conflicts, terrorism, the growing poverty,
resources’ exhaustion, environment’s pollution. It is why to raise the
problem of happiness is not indulging in fantasies, but realising in
whole complexity the main imperative of surviving for Mankind.
Discussion. The known old-Greek philosopher Demokritos considered that
"not words, but unhappiness is a teacher of stupid people".
In connection with it, let us remember the remark above that if only
imperatives are apprehended as categorical ones, any chances of surviving
will appear. It means as that the chances appeared the situation in
the world should be 'sufficiant bad', as after some general catastrophes
like "repetitions of the end of the world". It is why happiness
may be only for people who will have survived those 'repetitions'.
Though hardly. After consequences of such "repetitions", if of global scale, people survived may get deplored realized themselves survived...